Land Core Risk Model: Preliminary Findings

Photo: Federico Respini (Unsplash)

Overview

The Land Core Risk Model is quantifying the economic risk-mitigation value of specific soil health practices by examining the correlation between the implementation of these practices over time and their impact on yield.

The model draws on existing soil health practice data from spatial observations, combined with data from in-field experiments, publicly-available climate, weather, soil and geological data, as well as estimated yield data, to inform a statistical model capable of predicting the likelihood of reduced financial risk.

Preliminary Findings

We used data on over 393,000 fields in IL & MN, constructing spatially variable county-level models to account for changes in yield’s response across the study region. We quantified yield responses to adopting diversified crop rotations, asking whether more complex rotations mitigate the probability of crop yield losses in hot, dry weather, and whether trade-offs exist between benefits in suboptimal conditions and crop performance under favorable conditions.

>> We found that, across the state of Illinois, diverse crop rotations protect against yield losses in dry years without changing outcomes in typical years

>> Across the state of Illinois, simply adding 1 crop to rotation improves yield (68% of fields see a 0-2% increase, 22% of fields see a 2-4% increase)

>> Conversely, removing 1 crop from rotation decreases yield (19% of fields see a decrease of more than 6%; 30% of fields see a decrease of 4-6%, 32% of fields see a decrease of 2-4%)

This Project Overview & Preliminary Findings document was created as an educational tool for policymakers, including members of Congress on the House Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities, Risk Management, and Credit, and other stakeholders.

A key takeaway for policymakers: Initial data from the Land Core Risk Model provides a basis for valuing risk mitigation ecosystem services of complex crop rotations in actuarial and financial contexts, providing an important signal for policymakers.

Please contact us to learn more about the initial research or sign up for project updates here.